Sources checked October 27, 2026
The original proposal dates to 2023. The later financial and institutional review is separate from the project’s history. Notes identify reported data, calculations and untested assumptions. Monetary illustrations in note 3 are not actual CRP costs or buyer offers.
[1]
Ley sobre el Contrato de Seguro, Article 18. Official text, last reform April 4, 2013. https://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf/211.pdf
[2]
CNSF, 2025 Agrícola y de Animales workbook, Emision A1:T2714. MONEDA=Nacional, TIPO SEGURO=Agrícola, external-agent channels; recorded direct commission / issued premium with adjustments retained. Individual agents: 18,976,781.85 / 174,938,118.07 = 10.8477%; corporate agents: 9,737,105.19 / 95,351,596.07 = 10.2118%. Positive-issuance sensitivity: 10.8477% / 10.4186%. Aggregate ratios, not quoted tariffs. Source page: https://www.cnsf.gob.mx/EntidadesSupervisadas/InstitucionesSociedadesMutualistas/Paginas/AgricolayAnimales.aspx
[3]
Hypothetical financing illustrations, developed for this retrospective rather than observed in the original project. All amounts below are MXN and assume one annual enrollment/coverage cycle.
Operating-cost example: 5,000 farmers, 720,000 recurring fixed cost, four delivery workers at an assumed fully loaded 420,000 each, and 180 nonstaff expense per farmer. Total: 720,000 + (4 × 420,000) + (5,000 × 180) = 3,300,000, or 660 per farmer. These are invented planning inputs, not local quotes or CRP expenditure. Initial development/integration, insurance capital, exceptional disaster workload, financing and applicable taxes are not thereby funded.
Applying the observed agent-channel ratios in note 2, while assuming all 5,000 farmers buy insurance, gives annual compensation of 510,590–542,386 at an assumed 1,000 premium, or 2,552,948–2,711,928 at an assumed 5,000 premium. Both are below the assumed 3.3m operating cost. This is a conditional comparison, not a market forecast or an available commission offer.
Buyer-value example: the 3.3m all-in fee requires 660 per farmer in actual avoidable expense or additional economic contribution. An assumed 20% contribution means the premium left after expected claims, net reinsurance effects, capital charges and other incremental costs, before CRP's fee. At an assumed 5,000 premium, each genuinely additional policy contributes 1,000, requiring 3,300 additional policies to meet the fee through growth alone. A hypothetical retention improvement from 75% to 85% among 5,000 farmers creates 500 additional renewals and 500,000 of contribution under those assumptions. Existing renewals are not all attributable to CRP. None of the margins, premiums or effects is estimated from company accounts or measured CRP activity.
No matched farmer-service cost or expected incremental buyer margin was found. Average company profit ratios were not substituted for those missing parameters. Original calculations and their broader sensitivities remain in the research record.
[4]
Pro Agro, audited 2025/2024 financial statements, income statement p. 7. Exact 2025 operating expenses 606,984,456; operating result before financing −38,997,228; financing result 58,738,524; final profit 19,737,354, all MXN. Whole-company accounting, not target-cohort marginal contribution. https://www.proagroseguros.mx/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Estados_Financieros_Dictaminados_2025.pdf
[5]
MAPFRE México, 2025 Reporte sobre la Solvencia y Condición Financiera, Table G4, p. 113. The reported agricultural-and-animal net operating expense / direct premium ratio is 22% in 2025. This broad accounting category does not isolate CRP-replaceable tasks. https://www.mapfre.com.mx/media/rscf-mm-2025.pdf
[6]
Ley de Fondos de Aseguramiento Agropecuario y Rural, selected Articles 47, 49–51, 55. Last reform November 14, 2025. https://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf/LFAAR.pdf
[7]
FIRA support rules, especially 3.1.1.3, 3.1.1.4.1 and 3.1.7. https://sidof.segob.gob.mx/notas/docFuente/5774690
[8]
Guanajuato 2026 Seguro Agropecuario rules, assistance/translation rights in Article 23 do not by themselves establish an outsourcing budget: https://portalsocial.guanajuato.gob.mx/sites/default/files/programas_sociales/reglas_operacion/2026_SCGTO_Programa_Seguro_agropecuario_reglas_operacion_anexos_ocr%20%281%29.pdf
Campo Guanajuato 2026, Articles 12–16, 19, organization-mediated support, with Article 16 preferring applicants without SECAM support in the preceding two years. That is a preference, not a prohibition on renewal: https://portalsocial.guanajuato.gob.mx/sites/default/files/programas_sociales/reglas_operacion/2026_SCGTOPrograma_Campo_guanajuato_reglas_operacion_anexos_ocr.pdf
[9]
UCSB Climate Hazards Center, CHIRPS v2 documentation. https://chc.ucsb.edu/data/chirps/
[10]
ideas42, Insurance for Smallholder Farmers, January 2021, pp. 1–3. Interviews with 18 farmers in two Mexican communities; design questions, not a national estimate or causal product evaluation. https://www.ideas42.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/FarmersBrief-2.pdf
